Expected to be 3.8%
Each year, public sector pensions are increased by “inflation” in April. Whilst technically this happens through legislation (the Pensions Increase (Review) Order 2025 was this year’s legislation), it’s based on the CPI (Consumer Prices Index) from the previous September, announced in October.
This applies to all deferred pensions, pensions already being paid* and the new CARE (Career Average Revalued Earnings) schemes, like the NHS 2015 , Civil Service Alpha and LGPS 2014 schemes.
*Legacy (Final Salary) schemes receive a proportion of the increase in the April following the first payment, based on the number of months of the year to April since the retirement date.
There’s more information in the House of Commons Library Research Briefing, including the change from RPI to CPI in 2011.